Will DeSantis Strike?

Two reasons why I believe DeSantis will run in 2024

Things have heated up between Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis. Their formerly cordial relationship has soured, with the former president choosing to increasingly lob insults at Florida’s governor. Populist pundits appear to be taking DeSantis’ side, whereas the base remains firmly pro-Trump. 

Until recently, I didn’t think it likely that DeSantis would run with Trump still in the picture. I figured that DeSantis still has time, and that challenging Trump head on would be a grievous error, making it wiser and likelier for him to wait until 2028 to run. 

My perspective has changed, however, for two main reasons.

The first is salience. The careers of politicians ebb and flow. DeSantis is still riding high off of his recent wins, particularly his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, so his brand is salient. This, of course, could and probably will fade. For this reason, from a certain perspective, it makes sense for him to run now, regardless of Trump’s intentions. 

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