Election Day

A few thoughts on the election as America chooses its next president

Election Day is upon us. I’m feeling optimistic, but this election is wildly consequential. There’s tension in the air – and on the timeline, and in the group chats. 

Here are some thoughts and considerations on the election for you to mull over as we wait for the results to come in. 

Who Will Win? 

Today’s big question remains unanswered, but not for long. I maintain that Trump will win; that outcome, of course, is not guaranteed. The potential for voter fraud exists, although the likelihood of 2020 levels seems low. Without covid, it just isn't easy for the other side to engage in funny business. But that doesn’t mean it’s impossible. 

Republicans have been doing incredibly well in the early vote. What remains to be seen is whether the Democrats are able to mass mobilize voters today. I’m skeptical. There is also the possibility that Republicans who normally voted on election day voted early. But from what I’ve seen, the GOP leads in low propensity voters (those who haven’t voted in every recent presidential election) in a number of key states, including Pennsylvania. This means that at least some of the early voters are new ones. And I think that a lot of Republican voters still prefer to just vote the day of.

Challenging the Results 

While Trump has announced plans to challenge the results of the 2024 election should he lose, I wouldn’t count on this effort succeeding. After all, his efforts failed the first time around, and they resulted in many of his lawyers and allies facing severe civil and criminal penalties. Democratic operatives are already threatening to go after the law licenses of lawyers who assist Trump in any efforts to challenge the results. I don’t know if they would succeed – props to Miller’s America First Legal for fighting back – but all of the above is sure to create a chilling effect.